“Bluesky reminds us that every new public square begins as a promise, but survives only if people find enough meaning, trust, and belonging to keep returning.” – MJ Martin
Introduction
The social media universe is harsh. One day you are at the top looking down. Then, the next day you have fallen down so far that you can no longer even see the peak. While Bluesky is not technically dead, its relevance is highly debatable. And in the social media world, relevance is paramount.
Bluesky did not disappear, and it is not accurate to say that it has collapsed. However, the platform’s early promise as the natural successor to Twitter has become more complicated. Its story is less about a clean rise and fall than about a dramatic rise followed by the hard realities of social media economics, user behaviour, competition, and cultural stickiness. Bluesky became a symbol of escape for users tired of X, but escape alone is not the same as building a durable public square.
Background
Bluesky began in 2019 as a Twitter-funded project under Jack Dorsey, intended to explore decentralized social networking. It became independent in 2021 and was built around the AT Protocol, an open protocol designed to give users more control over identity, moderation, and feeds. The service opened to the public in February 2024 after an invitation-only period.
The platform’s appeal was clear. It offered a cleaner, quieter, more user-controlled alternative to X. It also positioned itself against the opaque, engagement-maximizing algorithms that dominate legacy social platforms. For journalists, academics, artists, technologists, and politically engaged users, Bluesky felt like a return to an earlier internet: conversational, human-scaled, and less aggressively commercial.
The Rise
Bluesky’s growth came in waves. It benefited from dissatisfaction with X, especially after controversial product and moderation changes. In late 2024, Bluesky experienced a major surge as users looked for alternatives following the U.S. election and continuing frustration with X. Reports at the time described Bluesky adding hundreds of thousands of users in short bursts, with the platform climbing app-store rankings.
By late 2025, Bluesky had reportedly reached roughly 40 million users, an impressive achievement for a small company competing against enormous incumbents. Yet registered users are not the same as active users. The distinction matters. A social platform can look successful on paper while losing the daily rhythm that makes it culturally important.
Competition
Bluesky’s biggest competitive problem is scale. X still has deep cultural infrastructure, including journalists, politicians, brands, celebrities, emergency information, sports commentary, and real-time news. Threads, backed by Meta, has Instagram’s social graph, engineering resources, advertising machinery, and massive distribution. By comparison, Bluesky remains small. Similarweb data reported in 2025 showed Threads and X with far larger daily mobile audiences, while Bluesky remained a much smaller challenger.
This does not make Bluesky irrelevant. It does mean that Bluesky must offer something more compelling than being “not X.” A protest migration can create momentum, but a daily habit requires utility.
Stickiness
The central challenge for Bluesky is stickiness. People join social platforms because of ideals, but they stay because their communities, conversations, and incentives are there. A platform becomes sticky when users feel they would miss something important by leaving. X remains sticky because it is still where many real-time conversations begin. Threads is sticky because it is attached to Meta’s existing ecosystem. Bluesky’s stickiness is weaker because many users joined during moments of frustration, not because all their networks permanently moved.
Reports in 2025 suggested declining engagement from post-election highs, including fewer daily posters and likers after the initial migration wave. That is not a death sentence, but it is a warning.
Algorithms
Bluesky’s algorithmic philosophy is one of its strongest and weakest features. Its customizable feeds and user choice reject the manipulative logic of traditional platforms. This is admirable. It also creates a discovery problem. Many users do not want to design their own information environment. They want the platform to show them what matters, who to follow, and why they should come back.
Bluesky’s challenge is to preserve algorithmic choice while improving discovery. Without better onboarding, recommendations, trends, and community pathways, new users may arrive, look around, and leave.
Culture and Moderation
Bluesky also faces a cultural challenge. A healthier platform can easily become an ideologically narrow platform. If users experience it as an echo chamber, the platform may feel safe but not interesting. Social media thrives on surprise, disagreement, humour, expertise, and breadth. Too much conflict drives people away, but too little diversity makes the feed predictable.
Summary
Bluesky’s fall, if that is the right word, is not a collapse. It is the cooling of a revolutionary moment. The platform rose because it gave frustrated users a credible alternative to X. Its future depends on whether it can become more than a refuge. To endure, Bluesky must solve the hard problems of scale, discovery, stickiness, moderation, culture, and business model. The blue sky is still there, but the weather has changed.
About the Author:
Michael Martin is the Vice President of Technology with Metercor Inc., a Smart Meter, IoT, and Smart City systems integrator based in Canada. He has more than 40 years of experience in systems design for applications that use broadband networks, optical fibre, wireless, and digital communications technologies. He is a business and technology consultant. He was a senior executive consultant for 15 years with IBM, where he worked in the GBS Global Center of Competency for Energy and Utilities and the GTS Global Center of Excellence for Energy and Utilities. He is a founding partner and President of MICAN Communications and before that was President of Comlink Systems Limited and Ensat Broadcast Services, Inc., both divisions of Cygnal Technologies Corporation (CYN: TSX).
Martin served on the Board of Directors for TeraGo Inc (TGO: TSX) and on the Board of Directors for Avante Logixx Inc. (XX: TSX.V). He has served as a Member, SCC ISO-IEC JTC 1/SC-41 – Internet of Things and related technologies, ISO – International Organization for Standardization, and as a member of the NIST SP 500-325 Fog Computing Conceptual Model, National Institute of Standards and Technology. He served on the Board of Governors of the University of Ontario Institute of Technology (UOIT) [now Ontario Tech University] and on the Board of Advisers of five different Colleges in Ontario – Centennial College, Humber College, George Brown College, Durham College, Ryerson Polytechnic University [now Toronto Metropolitan University]. For 16 years he served on the Board of the Society of Motion Picture and Television Engineers (SMPTE), Toronto Section.
He holds three master’s degrees – in business (MBA), communication (MA), and education (MEd). As well, he has three undergraduate diplomas and seven certifications in business, computer programming, internetworking, project management, media, photography, and communication technology. He has completed over 80 next generation MOOC (Massive Open Online Courses) [aka Micro Learning] continuous education programs in a wide variety of topics, including: Economics, Python Programming, Internet of Things, Cloud, Artificial Intelligence and Cognitive systems, Blockchain, Agile, Big Data, Design Thinking, Security, Indigenous Canada awareness, and more.